The Summer Movie Season begins in May and runs through August where May tends to be the strongest month of them all. When it comes to May films, you can always depend on a Marvel film to start us off (they’ve had a film open the first weekend of May starting back in 2008 when Iron Man first premiered) and any of the films opening during Memorial Day Weekend will bring in big money. Let’s take a look at what will be the biggest hit of the month, what films will succeed, what will fail, and what can go either way.
All box office predictions are for their domestic totals, and not including what they will make worldwide.
The Movie to Beat: CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR – May, 6th
CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR will hands down be the biggest movie of the month, year even. At the time that I am writing this article, the film has a perfect 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, and I don’t expect it to go down that much when all the reviews finally come in. To say this movie is going to be huge is an understatement. Whether it’ll top AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON, that I don’t know, but I think it will top at least IRON MAN 3. Box Office potential: $415mil
Hits: THE ANGRY BIRDS MOVIE – May, 20th; X-MEN: APOCALYPSE – May, 27th; ALICE THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS – May, 27th
THE ANGRY BIRDS MOVIE will sadly do well this month. All of the trailers make the film look pretty awful, and they simply aren’t funny. The reason why this will do well is because it will be the first major animated film since ZOOTOPIA opened at the beginning of March so parents will finally have something new to drag their kids to. As the film is based off a wildly popular game you can play on your smartphone or tablet, it will bring in the audiences as the characters are well known. How that translates to a coherent film that I could not tell you, but it will make money. Box Office Potential: $150mil
X-MEN: APOCALYPSE should continue the successful run of the franchise as they have all been dependable at the box office. Though they’ve never been monster hits, with its highest grossing film topping out at $234mil domestically, (Yes, DEADPOOL is a part of the X-MEN universe, but I am only talking about the standalone X-MEN films and not any of the spin-offs, which DEADPOOL and any of the Wolverine films are) I do have a feeling this might be the one to help push it further because the success of DEADPOOL which I feel sparked more interest in the X-MEN universe and characters which to be honest, have all become a little dull at this point. Box Office Potential: $250mil
Disney has been having a great year so far at the box office and critically with ZOOTOPIA, JUNGLE BOOK, and CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR that they’d like to continue their success with ALICE THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS, the sequel to the surprise monster hit. ALICE brings back the majority of the original cast and it opens on a prime weekend, so I see it not having any trouble being another box office hit for the studio, though I cannot guarantee that the critics will be very kind to it. I don’t expect it to make as much as the original, but Disney should be happy with another hit on their hands. Box Office Potential: $225mil
Misses: THE DARKNESS – May, 13th; KIDNAP – May, 13th
Doing my research on what was coming out this month, I saw these two titles and had no idea what they were, which is not a good thing. Only THE DARKNESS has a trailer and I don’t know if KIDNAP will even be released as there is very little information about this film available. All I know it is a Halle Berry film about a mom trying to get her son back who was just kidnapped. At this point, none of these films have any buzz and they come out in a month. This is a not a good sign and I don’t expect these films to do much. If any of the films make of $20mil, I’d be completely surprised.
Questionable: MONEY MONSTER – May, 13th; THE NICE GUYS – May, 20th; NEIGHBORS 2: SORORITY RISING – May, 20th
Though MONEY MONSTER has an intriguing premise, with an all-star cast, and Jodie Foster directing; it has to deal with coming out the weekend after CIVIL WAR. The second weekend of May is always very questionable because if the first movie is a massive hit, the films in the second weekend suffer. There’s no question CIVIL WAR will be a hit, but can MONEY MONSTER make a name for itself and bring people to the theater? I hope the film does get great with the critics as that will help its case immensely and become a mid-level hit. Box Office Potential: $50mil
THE NICE GUYS has a lot going for it. It has a great cast, one of the best writer/directors out there, and a fun premise but for some reason I can see the public ignoring this, which is sad. Ryan Gosling and Russell Crowe are great actors, but they don’t have the greatest track records at the box office, so the studio cannot depend on their names alone. Just like MONEY MONSTER, NICE GUYS will depend on the critics. Should the film get rave reviews, I think it will be a sleeper hit. Box Office Potential: $70mil
NEIGHBORS 2: SORORITY RISING is the sequel to the surprise hit which made $150mil back in 2014. My worry about this film is that the filmmakers will just try and recreate what worked in the first one instead of trying to come up with new material. Based off the trailers, looks like it’s going to be the same movie, but this time with girls. I love everyone in the movie and I thoroughly enjoyed the first film, so I think people will want to give it another try and it will open well, but fall sharply in the following weekends. I don’t think this film will be able to match what the original made, but it should have a decent run. Box Office Potential: $90mil