The first weekend of December is one of the worst weekends to release a movie. People are tired from the Thanksgiving weekend and they usually ignore whatever new release opens. This weekend shouldn’t be any different.
The battle for the #1 spot will be the real story for the weekend. Will MOCKINGJAY – PART 2 be able to hold on for a third weekend in a row, or will GOOD DINOSAUR knock it out of the top spot?
The only new release to opening weekend is the horror comedy KRAMPUS starring Adam Scott and Toni Collette about a Christmas daemon terrorizing a family on a cold winter night. The reviews have been mostly positive, which should help give it a little boost, but dark comedies are a tough sell, and they tend to not do well at the box office. As much as I like the cast, and the trailer is pretty bonkers, I don’t see this bucking that trend and I predict it will make $8mil over the weekend. I do feel like this film has the potential to become a cult classic, that finds better life at midnight screenings down the line.
Action films apart of a established franchise tend to not have as good of legs as an animated film, especially a Pixar one, so GOOD DINOSAUR will definitely have the upper hand on this one. But how much will it drop? GOOD DINOSAUR was on the lower end of opening weekends for a Pixar film, so it will need to have a small drop to make up for a weaker opening. Pixar films hold real well in the second weekend and GOOD DINOSAUR should do the same, therefor I see it making a decent $25mil over the weekend. I know they were expecting bigger numbers, but they still have one more full weekend before STAR WARS come out and destroys the competition to make up for weaker performance so far.
MOCKINGJAY -PART 2 will have to settle for second place over the weekend with $21mil. This hasn’t been the outstanding run that the studio would have liked, but it should make up for it’s lower numbers domestically with a good international run. At this time, it has already made $243mil overseas alone.
In a perfect world, CREED would somehow make more than it’s excellent $29mil opening weekend and make an additional $30+ million dollars because it is such an amazing film and everyone needs to go see it now. Seriously, I don’t know how else we can make you go out and see this wonderful and powerful film. Anyways, since the movie has connected so well with audiences, I see it having a shallow drop and make a great $20mil in its second weekend. Again, I would to see it have an even smaller drop and possibly top GOOD DINOSAUR, but I’ll still be happy if it somehow beats MOCKINGJAY – PART 2.
GOOD DINOSAUR – $25mil
MOCKINGJAY – PART 2 – $21mil
CREED – $20mil
KRAMPUS – $8mil