November was a mixed bag for the box office. There wasn’t any break out films, but we still had a number of films cross the $100mil mark, but no outright hits. December is looking to be one of the best months of the year, but that’s only because of one small film that you may or may not have heard of, STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS*. The only question is, how will the other films opening this month fare up against this behemoth.
Note: All my predictions are for their domestic totals, and they are not including any possible international box office numbers.
*DRINKING GAME ALERT! take a shot every time you see STAR WARS mentioned. I highly recommend it.
December, 4th – The first weekend of December is one of the worst weekends to release a film as most people are tired from Thanksgiving Weekend and they tend to stay home and ignore whatever is being released. This year, it wont be any different.
KRAMPUS – $20mil
A dark comedy about a dysfunctional family who accidentally summon a Christmas daemon that terrorizes them. Yes, the type of heartwarming Christmas film you’ll want to bring your whole family to. What this film has going for it is its cast. The film stars Adam Scott, Toni Colette, and Alison Tolman. With a great cast and a fun premise, it might be able to bring in an audience, albeit a small one. I have a good feeling this will become a cult classic and live on through midnight screenings.
December, 11th – Normally this would be a perfect time to release a bigger film to take advantage of the rest of the month, but as STAR WARS opens the following weekend, it will severely limit it’s box office potential.
IN THE HEART OF THE SEA – $65mil
The film is being advertised as being the true story that inspired the classic book Moby Dick. The film is screaming Oscar Bait as it is a period drama directed by Ron Howard and has a very star studded cast, headed by Chris Hemsworth. If this film had be released at any other time this year, my prediction would have been a larger number, but since it really only has about a week to make the bulk of its money with STAR WARS opening the week after, I will get swallowed up by that whale of a movie. If the film earns great reviews and garners awards attention, maybe it’ll help it down the line, but I don’t see it surviving after the first weekend.
December, 18th – This is the weekend everyone has been waiting for. STAR WARS will finally open and the people will rejoice and be glad in it.
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS – $750mil
This is actually very hard to predict. The film has the potential to be the highest grossing film of all time and surpass AVATAR. I can almost guarantee that it will have the biggest opening weekend of all time as its pre-sales are insane, but will it be bale to hold on for the following weekends? The competition is very weak, so even if it has a very steep drop off in its consecutive weekends, it’ll not matter what gross more that $500mil. If the reviews match the buzz, then I can see it passing AVATAR’s $760mil, but at this very moment, I think it’ll be neck and neck and make around the same. Only time will tell now.
ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: ROAD CHIP – $60mil
I don’t know why a 4th ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS film is being made. Yes, they make money, but they are also some of the worst reviewed films, and the third under performed. But alas, we are being treated to a 4th film and since it does have some sort of fan base, it should make a little money, but nothing like its predecessors. I hope this will be the final nail in the coffin for this unnecessary franchise.
SISTERS – $50mil
I love me some Tine Fey and Amy Poehler, but they are going to need some sort of miracle opening up against STAR WARS. The trailer is entertaining, but lacks some big laugh moments, and it will need those if it wants to be a sleeper hit to help bring audiences in. If the reviews are good, then maybe it will stick around awhile.
December, 25th – Christmas is on a Friday this year, and families love to go to the movies after they all open presents, and this year we have a total of 6 films opening, but none have a shot up against STAR WARS.
CONCUSSION – $65mil
A hard hitting drama about the concussion controversy with the NFL starring Will Smith as the doctor who discovers this problem. This is a risky film as football is America’s favorite sport and they live and die by it. I am interested to see how far the film will go and if people will turn out to see it. I am happy to see Will Smith in a role like this where he can really sink his teeth into it. There is a lot of competition this weekend, and if the film earns great reviews, it will help keep it afloat and I expect it to be a solid mid-level hit.
DADDY’S HOME – $85mil
A new comedy with brings Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg back together as a dad and step-dad competing against each other for the affection of their kids. It’s a very simple premise and Ferrell and Wahlberg have good chemistry, so it should being in people who enjoyed them in THE OTHER GUYS. I don’t expect critics to like this film, but I don’t think that will matter and it will do well over the holiday weekend.
JOY – $75
Jennifer Lawrence stars in her third David O’Russell film about the woman who invented the Miracle Mop. As she has a great track record working with O’Russell, I expect this film to do as well as SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK and AMERICAN HUSTLE, and possibly earning her another Oscar nomination. Lawrence’s name alone will bring in a big audience, and if it performs well with critics, it will have good legs at the box office.
POINT BREAK – $35mil
An unnecessary remake of the Katherine Bigelow cult classic with no one of note in the cast will be completely looked over this weekend as everyone will be seeing STAR WARS. The only reason why I see this film making any money is that people will be trying to get tickets for STAR WARS and be told it’s sold out, so they buy a ticket to POINT BREAK and sneak in to see STAR WARS.
BIG SHORT – $40mil
A star studded ensemble comedy/drama about the finical collapse in the mid-2000’s. This cast is amazing and I am excited to see what Adam McKay can do outside his Will Ferrell comedies. The early reviews are great, and I hope that will translate to good box office, but I am worried that will get lost in the shuffle with the amount of films opening on this day.
THE HATEFUL EIGHT – $115mil
The 8th film by Quentin Tarantino about a group bounty hunters trapped in a cabin in Wyoming during a blizzard. Tarantino has a very rabid fan base, and last time he had a film open at Christmas, it became his biggest hit. With a great cast, and I am sure, great reviews, this will be good alternative viewing for the Christmas weekend and bring in a big audience.