Thanksgiving is next week, so studios are pulling out the big guns to take advantage of all the people wanting to heads to the cinemas. Which will end up on top, and what’s going to be put aside for leftovers?
The one film to concur them all will hands down be THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY – PART 2. This is the final installment of one of the most successful film franchises of all time. Each film has opened with over $120mil and grossed over $330mil. Those are huge numbers and I expect PART 2 to do the same. PART 1, which opened this same time last year opened with $121mil, which is the lowest of the series. I expect PART 2 to bounce back and make $130mil. This is still lower that the original HUNGER GAMES and CATCHING FIRE, but I expect it to have longer legs than PART 1, since this is the final film and people will be wanting to see how it all ends. It has the benefit of not have any direct competition until STAR WARS opens a month from now, so it should hold well for the next 4 weeks.
THE NIGHT BEFORE, the new Seth Rogen stoner comedy, but with a holiday theme, is opening this weekend as counter programming to MOCKINGJAY – PART 2. Usually films like this have a hard time finding an audience up against a huge movie like that, but with solid reviews and and excellent cast, I think it’ll do rather well and make a solid $22mil over the weekend.
SECRET IN THEIR EYES, the star studded drama is also opening this weekend, but with weak reviews, little to no buzz, and heavy competition, this is the one film that is going to be forgotten. I don’t expect it to make more than $8mil.
As for holdovers, SPECTRE will definitely be affect by MOCKINGJAY – PART 2, and suffer a big drop in its third weekend and make $18mil. THE PEANUTS MOVIE should still do good business as it is still the only family film out there and make a solid $14mil.
THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY – PART 2 – $130mi
THE NIGHT BEFORE – $22mil
SPECTRE – $18mil
THE PEANUTS MOVIE – $14mil
SECRET IN THEIR EYES – $8mil
This weekend in Box Office History: THE TWILIGHT SAGA: NEW MOON opened on this weekend in 2009 with $142mil. What was significant about this opening was that it almost beat THE DARK KNIGHTS record breaking opening weekend and everyone was freaking out about that. No one wanted a stupid TWILIGHT film to beat one the greatest films of all time. Luckily it feel sharply each day over the weekend, and it did not surpass DARK KNIGHTS $158mil opening weekend.