I’m going to go out right and say it, October was a complete bust for the box office. The majority of films that opened bombed and there really only two bright spots with THE MARTIAN and GOOSEBUMPS (which isn’t really performing spectacularly, but in comparison to the others, it’s a hit). With STAR WARS looming in the distance, November is the last chance for any other film to make some sort of dent in the box office, and November looks like tit should be able to rebound after the forgettable and very disappointing October.
All my predictions are for their domestic totals, and they are not including any possible international box office numbers.
November, 6th – The first weekend of the month should start off strong with a family friendly film based off of classic characters and everyone’s favorite super spy.
THE PEANUTS MOVIE – $150mil in total
Based off the classic comic strip, this is the first full length film for the Peanuts gang in over 30 years. The nostalgia will help bring in audiences of all ages as most people either grew up reading the comics or watching their classic holiday specials. There hasn’t been an animated film since HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 2, so the timing couldn’t be more perfect for its release. Plus, it has enough distance before Pixar’s THE GOOD DINOSAUR opens at the end of the month to make good money.
SPECTRE – $265mil in total
SPECTRE has quite an uphill battle as it is coming after the biggest hit for the franchise. The Bond series is one of the longest lasting franchises in movie history, but not always the biggest money makers as the highest grossing picture was QUANTUM OF SOLACE with $168mil. That all changed when SKYFALL came out and blew all the films out of the water making a staggering $304mil. I don’t expect SPECTRE to be as big of hit, but I do think it will be able to take advantage of the success SKYFALL had and have an impressive run at the box office. I’m guessing the studio would like it to make more than SKYFALL, but that is simply an impossible task.
November, 13th – This weekend looks like to be a dumping ground for films as nothing looks like it will stand a chance against SPECTRE in its second weekend.
THE 33 – $45mil in total
Based off the true story of 33 Chilean miners who were trapped in a copper mine shaft after it collapsed on them. Of the three films opening this weekend, I expect this film to perform the best as true life stories about survival tend to do well with audiences, and if the film receives good reviews, it should also help it have good legs and possible Oscar buzz.
LOVE THE COOPERS – $40mil in total
An ensemble Christmas film that doesn’t look funny or remotely interesting based off the trailer. Makes me mad that so many great actors are in a film like this that looks so unbelievably lazy. I guess they all had something to pay off, or a brand new boat, and needed the pay check. I expect this film to get terrible reviews and do okay at the box office because of the holiday theme and familiar faces.
MY ALL AMERICAN – $25mil in total
A football film written by the man who wrote RUDY, which essentially has the same plot as RUDY. Both films follow a talented college football played that is too small to play, but they have a lot of heart. I honestly didn’t even know this film was coming out until yesterday, and I don’t expect the buzz to get any louder than it already isn’t. Skip this and watch RUDY again.
November, 20th – The weekend before Thanksgiving has always proven to be one of the best times to open a big movie as most people will have time off and more time to go out to the movies.
THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY – PART 2 – $390mil in total
THE HUNGER GAMES has proven to be one of the most successful franchises with both critical notoriety and box office success. The previous film under-performed when compared to the first two, but it was the first part of a film that was split in two, and traditionally they don’t do as well. I expect the final film of the franchise to bounce back as everyone will want to see how it all ends. I don’t think it will be the biggest of the franchise, but it will end its run on a high note and make $390mil.
THE NIGHT BEFORE – $75mil in total
Seth Rogen has such a good track record for his films, and with a stellar cast and the holiday theme, it will be good counter programming against THE HUNGER GAMES and do solid business and become a mid-level hit. I really enjoy his films, as the comedy is sharp with fun characters. He has such a built in audience, they’ll follow him wherever he goes.
SECRET IN THEIR EYES – $35mil in total
This is a re-make is the Oscar winning Argentinian film of the same name. This re-make has an amazing central cast with Julia Roberts, Nicole Kidman, and Chiwetel Ejiofor. This film screams “Oscar bait”, and if it does get Oscar worthy reviews, it should bring in a bigger number than I predicted. With a film that has such a heavy subject matter, I am not sure right before Thanksgiving would be the best time to release the film, but I know the studio is thinking Oscar. As I do love the cast, I hope it does exceed my modest expectations.
November, 25th – This weekend really is the last chance for any film to make big money as STAR WARS will be in direct competition in a couple of weeks.
CREED – $80mil in total
Not really a ROCKY sequel, but more of a spin off as the film follows Apollo Creed’s son, Adonis, as he tries to make a name for himself in the boxing world. The trailers have been fantastic, and the cast is great. Michael B Jordan has proven to be a force to be reckoned with, and this film should put him on the map.
GOOD DINOSAUR – $250mil in total
This film has had a troubled production. It was supposed to be released last year, but Pixar pushed it back to this weekend, a year later. There was a change of director and almost a compete cast change. Usually this is a sign that the film will be a dud, but based off the trailers, I think it will be a pleasant surprise. I don’t think it will perform as well and INSIDE OUT did over the summer, but with an excellent release date, and the fact it is a Pixar film, it should perform along the lines as the MONSTERS INC. films.
VICTOR FRANKENSTEIN – $40mil in total
I am not sure why the studio decided to move this film from its October date to right before Thanksgiving, as October is more fitting for a monster film. I think with all the competition, this will be over looked and forgotten. Plus, the trailer makes it look rather uninteresting and unoriginal, and the tone of the film is all over the place. Is it a scary movie or a buddy comedy, I really can’t tell. I expect poor reviews and a poor run at the box office.